Flächeninanspruchnahme 2020 und das 30-ha-Ziel: Regionale Verteilungsschlüssel und Anpassungserfordernisse

The reduction of land development and the attainment of the national 30-ha-sustainability-target require all states, regions and municipalities in Germany to adjust. Up to now, however, regional targets for local jurisdictions have not been achieved. This paper presents a top-down mechanism by which a national target is subdivided according to the population and total area shares of each administrative unit. Distributional implications of this rule are analyzed on the level of states and regions. For this purpose, the derived sub-quantities are compared with the past and future land development rates. The future development of land consumption is estimated by the Panta Rhei Regio model, which projects growth rates of settlement and traffic areas until 2020. The results show that although land development will decline significantly in the next years, it will still clearly remain above the 30-ha-target level. As the simulation is modeled on county level the results also indicate the need to specify detailed quantity standards at regional level. A definition of subdivided targets for states, regions and municipalities offers the opportunity to improve the ongoing German debate on open space preservation and to initiate greater efforts on the way to a more efficient use of natural resource land.