Research on Reliability Modeling, Allocation and Prediction of Chemical Production System

Reliability allocation and prediction play an important role in the chemical production system, controlling the significance of each production allocation and predicting system reliability to analyze the designs in each system or integrated system if meeting requirements or not. This paper takes an ethylene plant as an example to study reliability modeling, allocation and prediction of related system. It is aimed to allocate and predict each production system or unit. In terms of system reliability allocation, it finds out the reliability allocation R in integrated system is 0.76460 with improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Due to the number higher than initial reliability value of 0.73886, it illustrates the integrated reliability allocation meets the design requirements. In terms of reliability prediction, the result is more accurate when using Bayes fuzzy reliability prediction to calculate system reliability level and it can reflect this kind of indeterminate small sample data better.