Modelling the dynamics of the cancer risk due to potentially toxic elements in agricultural soils, in the upper Crocodile River catchment, North-West province, South Africa

Contaminated agricultural soil with potentially toxic elements (PTEs) poses a threat to food safety and can adversely affect human health. This study evaluates the potential health risk caused by PTEs contamination in cultivated soils and the possible related health effect. Sixty-four (64) soil samples from cultivated soils before crop cultivation and post-crop were harvested and twenty-four (24) soil samples from a natural game reserve park were collected and. The PTEs were analysed using the inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) for the following elements As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn, Mn, Al, and Fe. The contamination factor (CF), pollution load index (PLI), hazard quotient (HQ), and hazard index (HI) was calculated to assess the human health risks for the different pathways to the exposed population. A carcinogenic probabilistic risk model based on the mathematical derivation and PTEs transmission pathways is presented. The mean concentrations of the PTEs in the cultivated soil varied in order of Al > Fe > Mn > Cr > Ni > Zn > Cu > Pb > As > Cd. Cr and Ni concentrations in all the cultivated soils were found to be higher than the Canadian guidelines and the Finnish permissible threshold guidelines for agricultural. The CF in the soil indicates extreme contamination suggestion an ecotoxicological effect. The PLI value also suggests that the soils have undergone some form of deterioration, particularly with Cr and Ni. The ingestion seems to be the major pathway followed by dermal to children. The HQ and HI values for the children were > 1 indicating an adverse health effect for the children residing around the cultivated fields. The simulated results indicate that the percentage of the affected humans that may be consuming crop derived from the contaminated soil increases by a factor of 2 as the contamination factor increases. The transmission compartments can be used as an effective measure in which mitigation can be effectively used. •Cr and Ni contamination factor range from high to very high, indicating an ecotoxocological effect on vegetal.•Carcinogenic dynamic risk model indicates that the contamination rate increases by a factor of 2 as the contamination factor increases.•The disease transmission compartment can be use as effective tool in which mitigation measures can effectively apply.•Mathematic models’ can be used to predict carcinogenic risks associated with soil contamination.