Scenario choice impacts carbon allocation projection at global warming levels

We show that the distribution of anthropogenic carbon between the atmosphere, land surface, and ocean differs with the choice of projection scenario even for identical changes in mean global surface temperature. Warming thresholds occur later in lower-CO.sub.2 -emissions scenarios and with less carbon in the three main reservoirs than in higher-CO.sub.2 -emissions scenarios. At 2 .sup." C of warming, the mean carbon allocation differs by up to 63 PgC between scenarios, which is equivalent to approximately 6 years of the current global total emissions. At the same warming level, higher-CO.sub.2 -concentration scenarios have a lower combined ocean and land carbon allocation fraction of the total carbon compared to lower-CO.sub.2 -concentration scenarios.