Predicting Pancreatic Cancer in New‐Onset Diabetes Cohort Using a Novel Model With Integrated Clinical and Genetic Indicators: A Large‐Scale Prospective Cohort Study

ABSTRACT Introduction Individuals who develop new‐onset diabetes have been identified as a high‐risk cohort for pancreatic cancer (PC), exhibiting an incidence rate nearly 8 times higher than the general population. Hence, the targeted screening of this specific cohort presents a promising opportunity for early pancreatic cancer detection. We aimed to develop and validate a novel model capable of identifying high‐risk individuals among those with new‐onset diabetes. Methods Employing the UK Biobank cohort, we focused on those developing new‐onset diabetes during follow‐up. Genetic and clinical characteristics available at registration were considered as candidate predictors. We conducted univariate regression analysis to identify potential indicators and used a 5‐fold cross‐validation method to select optimal predictors for model development. Five machine learning algorithms were used for model development. Results Among 12,735 patients with new‐onset diabetes, 100 (0.8%) were diagnosed with PC within 2 years. The final model (area under the curve, 0.897; 95% confidence interval, 0.865–0.929) included 5 clinical predictors and 24 single nucleotide polymorphisms. Two threshold cut‐offs were established: 1.28% and 5.26%. The recommended 1.28% cut‐off, based on model performance, reduces definitive testing to 13% of the total population while capturing 76% of PC cases. The high‐risk threshold is 5.26%. Utilizing this threshold, only 2% of the population needs definitive testing, capturing nearly half of PC cases. Conclusions We, for the first time, combined clinical and genetic data to develop and validate a model to determine the risk of pancreatic cancer in patients with new‐onset diabetes using machine learning algorithms. By reducing the number of unnecessary tests while ensuring that a substantial proportion of high‐risk patients are identified, this tool has the potential to improve patient outcomes and optimize healthcare sources.