Air pollution as a substantial threat to the improvement of agricultural total factor productivity: Global evidence

[Display omitted] •The study reports a significantly negative impact of air pollution on agricultural total factor productivity (TFP).•The empirical analysis is based on the data of 146 countries during 2010–2019.•On average, a 1% increase in PM2.5 and O3 concentration would cause the agricultural TFP to decline by 0.104% and 0.207%, respectively.•Temperature has a moderating effect. This study aims to provide empirical evidence about whether and to what extent air pollution affects the global agricultural total factor productivity (TFP). The research sample covers 146 countries all over the world during 2010–2019. Two-way fixed effects panel regression models are used to estimate air pollution’s impacts. A random forest analysis is conducted to assess the relative importance of independent variables. The results show that, on average, a 1% increase in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and tropospheric ozone (O3) concentration would cause the agricultural TFP to decline by 0.104% and 0.207%, respectively. Air pollution’s adverse impact widely exists in various countries with different development levels, pollution degrees, and industrial structures. This study also finds that temperature has a moderating effect on the relationship between PM2.5 and agricultural TFP. PM2.5 pollution’s detrimental impact is weaker (stronger) in a warmer (cooler) climate. In addition, the random forest analysis confirms that air pollution is among the most crucial predictors of agricultural productivity. Air pollution is a substantial threat to the improvement of global agricultural TFP. Worldwide actions should be taken to ameliorate air quality, for the sake of agricultural sustainability and global food security.