J-shaped association of the triglyceride glucose-body mass index with new-onset diabetes

The triglyceride glucose-body mass index (TyG-BMI) is a convenient and clinically significant indicator of insulin resistance. This study aims to investigate the correlation between TyG-BMI and the onset of new-onset diabetes and determine an optimal reflection point for TyG-BMI. An analysis was conducted on 1917 participants from the risk evaluation of cancers in Chinese diabetic individuals: a lONgitudinal (REACTION) study. Participants were categorized based on their TyG-BMI, and the relationship between TyG-BMI and the incidence of new-onset diabetes was explored through logistic regression models, smoothed curve fitting with restricted cubic spline, and a two-piecewise logistic regression model. The mean age of the participants was 57.60 ± 8.89 years, with 66.5% being females. The mean TyG-BMI was 223.3 ± 32.8. Ultimately, 137 individuals (7.1%) progressed to diabetes after three years. After adjusting for covariates, TyG-BMI exhibited a positive correlation with new-onset diabetes (odd ratios (OR) for each standard deviation increase = 1.330, 95% CI 1.110–1.595). The relationship between TyG-BMI and new-onset diabetes was non-linear, with a inflcetion point at 202.9. This study reveals a positive non-linear relationship between TyG-BMI and the risk of new-onset diabetes in Chinese middle-aged and elderly individuals. When TyG-BMI exceeds 202.9, there is a significantly heightened risk of new-onset diabetes. These findings offer valuable insights for preventing new-onset diabetes.