AI-powered simulation-based inference of a genuinely spatial-stochastic gene regulation model of early mouse embryogenesis

Understanding how multicellular organisms reliably orchestrate cell-fate decisions is a central challenge in developmental biology, particularly in early mammalian development, where tissue-level differentiation arises from seemingly cell-autonomous mechanisms. In this study, we present a multi-scale, spatial-stochastic simulation framework for mouse embryogenesis, focusing on inner cell mass (ICM) differentiation into epiblast (EPI) and primitive endoderm (PRE) at the blastocyst stage. Our framework models key regulatory and tissue-scale interactions in a biophysically realistic fashion, capturing the inherent stochasticity of intracellular gene expression and intercellular signaling, while efficiently simulating these processes by advancing event-driven simulation techniques. Leveraging the power of Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) through the AI-driven Sequential Neural Posterior Estimation (SNPE) algorithm, we conduct a large-scale Bayesian inferential analysis to identify parameter sets that faithfully reproduce experimentally observed features of ICM specification. Our results reveal mechanistic insights into how the combined action of autocrine and paracrine FGF4 signaling coordinates stochastic gene expression at the cellular scale to achieve robust and reproducible ICM patterning at the tissue scale. We further demonstrate that the ICM exhibits a specific time window of sensitivity to exogenous FGF4, enabling lineage proportions to be adjusted based on timing and dosage, thereby extending current experimental findings and providing quantitative predictions for both mutant and wild-type ICM systems. Notably, FGF4 signaling not only ensures correct EPI-PRE lineage proportions but also enhances ICM resilience to perturbations, reducing fate-proportioning errors by 10-20% compared to a purely cell-autonomous system. Additionally, we uncover a surprising role for variability in intracellular initial conditions, showing that high gene-expression heterogeneity can improve both the accuracy and precision of cell-fate proportioning, which remains robust when fewer than 25% of the ICM population experiences perturbed initial conditions. Our work offers a comprehensive, spatial-stochastic description of the biochemical processes driving ICM differentiation and identifies the necessary conditions for its robust unfolding. It also provides a framework for future exploration of similar spatial-stochastic systems in developmental biology.