Quantitative trait variation in ASD probands and toddler sibling outcomes at 24 months

Younger siblings of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are at increased likelihood of receiving an ASD diagnosis and exhibiting other developmental concerns. It is unknown how quantitative variation in ASD traits and broader developmental domains in older siblings with ASD (probands) may inform outcomes in their younger siblings. Participants included 385 pairs of toddler siblings and probands from the Infant Brain Imaging Study. ASD probands (mean age 5.5 years, range 1.7 to 15.5 years) were phenotyped using the Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised (ADI-R), the Social Communication Questionnaire (SCQ), and the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales, Second Edition (VABS-II). Siblings were assessed using the ADI-R, VABS-II, Mullen Scales of Early Learning (MSEL), and Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS) and received a clinical best estimate diagnosis at 24 months using DSM-IV-TR criteria (n = 89 concordant for ASD; n = 296 discordant). We addressed two aims: (1) to determine whether proband characteristics are predictive of recurrence in siblings and (2) to assess associations between proband traits and sibling dimensional outcomes at 24 months. Regarding recurrence risk, proband SCQ scores were found to significantly predict sibling 24-month diagnostic outcome (OR for a 1-point increase in SCQ = 1.06; 95% CI = 1.01, 1.12). Regarding quantitative trait associations, we found no significant correlations in ASD traits among proband-sibling pairs. However, quantitative variation in proband adaptive behavior, communication, and expressive and receptive language was significantly associated with sibling outcomes in the same domains; proband scores explained 9-18% of the variation in cognition and behavior in siblings with ASD. Receptive language was particularly strongly associated in concordant pairs (ICC = 0.50, p