Construction of a predictive model for fever in elderly patients after endoscopic mucosal dissection surgery

Objective To analyze the risk factors for postoperative fever in elderly patients after endoscopic mucosal dissection (ESD), and construct a predictive model. Methods The research subjects were 500 elderly patients who received upper gastrointestinal ESD treatment in The First Affiliated Hospital with Nanjing Medical University from January 2023 to January 2024. They were divided into a modeling group (n=350) and a validation group (n=150) in a 7∶3 ratio. The modeling group of patients was divided into fever group and non-fever group based on whether they experience fever after ESD surgery. Data were collected from inpatient electronic medical record systems. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to screen factors and a predictive model was established in elderly patients after ESD. ROC curve was used to evaluate the discriminability of the predictive model. Results A total of 90 elderly patients who underwent ESD treatment experienced postoperative fever (T≥37.3℃), with a postop