Numerical Simulation of Saltwater Intrusion in the Yangtze River Estuary Based on a Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model

Saltwater intrusion is a common issue in the Yangtze River estuary (YRE), significantly affecting the nearshore ecological environment and human activities. Using 20 years of runoff data, a high-resolution Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) is constructed to simulate the lower reaches and estuary of the Yangtze River. This model is employed to analyze full-depth current and salinity characteristics and to explore the influence of factors such as runoff, wind, tides, and riverbank morphology on saltwater intrusion in the YRE. The model’s accuracy is validated by comparing its output with current speed and salinity observations and comparing long-term salinity variations with reanalysis data. The comparison shows that the model well reproduces the saltwater intrusion in the YRE. Over the long term, the salinity pattern exhibits a “high–low–high” variation. Analyzing the vertical structure of the intrusion, it is observed that during summer, surface waters are heated, resulting in stronger stratification, weaker mixing, and a more pronounced saltwater intrusion in the YRE. Using power spectrum and correlation analyses, runoff is identified as the factor having the greatest impact on saltwater intrusion, followed by meridional wind and changes in riverbank morphology. This study of the variations in long-term saltwater intrusion has important reference value for the protection of freshwater resources in the YRE.