An integrative socio-hydrological resilience assessment and management implications for oasis sustainability in arid regions, Northwest China

The oases of the lower reaches of inland river basin in south Xinjiang, Northwest China The increase of man-made water demands has led to water shortage and water pollution issues worldwide. It is important to determine the contributions of oasis change to socio-hydrological system resilience for oasis sustainability in arid regions. This study proposes an integrative socio-hydrological resilience assessment framework to examine the relationships between oasis evolution and system resilience at spatial-temporal scales. Hooke's Law and parallelogram law are adopted to quantitatively evaluate the resilience of drought, water resource utilization and water pollution, and comprehensive resilience of socio-hydrological system. Meanwhile, the impact of oasis expansion on socio-hydrological system resilience is quantified. The research and application of oases in Hotan prefecture of northwest China have proved that the proposed framework is very promising for assessing the relationships between oasis evolution and socio-hydrological system resilience in arid regions. During the study period from 2009 to 2018, The oases show “expansion-contraction-expansion” trends. There is significant negative correlation between oasis change and system resilience. The population size, socioeconomic development level and structure of cultivated land are the main factors affecting the oasis area and system resilience. The expanded agricultural irrigation reduces the resilience of socio-hydrological system. The water pollution has gradually affected oasis sustainability and system resilience. This study also provides a management implication concerning the impact of water pollution on the oasis sustainability in the future work. [Display omitted] •A quantitative framework involving socio-hydrological system resilience is proposed.•Hooke's and parallel quadrilateral law is used to assess comprehensive resilience.•There is significant negative correlation between oasis change and system resilience.•Expanded agricultural irrigation reduces the resilience of socio-hydrological system.•Water pollution has gradually affected oasis sustainability and system resilience.