Globalisation and pollinators: Pollinator declines are an economic threat to global food systems

Trade in animal‐pollinated crops plays an important role in global food systems: in many low‐income countries, export of pollinated crops such as coffee and cocoa plays a significant role in livelihoods, while food systems in many higher income nations depend on international trade in these crops to satisfy their local demands. Losses of pollination services therefore pose a significant risk to economies beyond the area directly affected. Using a simple extension of a common economic model, we explore which countries are most affected by a loss of pollination services in three case study groups of 25 countries that are vulnerable to different risks: pesticide use, natural disasters and economic debts. In all three cases, large, developed economies such as the United Kingdom, Germany and Japan, are estimated to suffer the greatest economic losses, even if pollinator losses only affect smaller, less‐developed economies. In cases where higher income countries are affected by pollinator losses, there is a significant shift in the value of global pollinated crop production towards other large, unaffected countries. Our findings highlight the need for richer countries to invest in pollinator conservation beyond their own borders to maintain resilient food systems. We provide suggestions for further economic research to better understand and identify system vulnerabilities to pollinator losses. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. 摘要 动物授粉贸易对全球的食品体系起重要作用: 在许多低收入国家中，咖啡、可可之类的授粉作物出口是人民维持生计的重要来源，而对于许多收入更高的国家而言，其食品系统则依靠这些食品的国际贸易来满足本地需求。因此，授粉服务的减少还能对受直接影响区域外的经济体带来巨大风险。 使用一种常见经济模型的简单延申方法，我们设立了3个案例研究小组，每组涵盖25个易受以下三项风险中其中一种所影响的国家，这三项风险分别为:杀虫剂使用、自然灾害和经济负债。由此，我们探究了哪些国家最能因授粉服务减少而受到波及。 在这3个案例中，即使授粉者的减少只出现在欠发展的小经济体中，如英国、德国和日本这些发达的大经济体预计也会承受最沉重的经济损失。 在受授粉者减少所影响的较高收入国家的案例中，其全球授粉作物产量对其它未受影响的大国而言，存在显著价值改变。 我们的调查结果强调了为维持具有弹性的食品体系，较富有国家对保护本国以外的授粉者而做出投资的必要性。我们对进一步经济研究提供了建议，以此来更好地理解并鉴别体系中所存在的弱点和授粉者的减少情况。 Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.