Belief inference for hierarchical hidden states in spatial navigation

Uncertainty abounds in the real world, and in environments with multiple layers of unobservable hidden states, decision-making requires resolving uncertainties based on mutual inference. Focusing on a spatial navigation problem, we develop a Tiger maze task that involved simultaneously inferring the local hidden state and the global hidden state from probabilistically uncertain observation. We adopt a Bayesian computational approach by proposing a hierarchical inference model. Applying this to human task behaviour, alongside functional magnetic resonance brain imaging, allows us to separate the neural correlates associated with reinforcement and reassessment of belief in hidden states. The imaging results also suggest that different layers of uncertainty differentially involve the basal ganglia and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, and that the regions responsible are organised along the rostral axis of these areas according to the type of inference and the level of abstraction of the hidden state, i.e. higher-order state inference involves more anterior parts. An fMRI study using a new navigation task suggests that state inference with multi-layered uncertainty engages different areas of the medial prefrontal cortex and basal ganglia, depending on its level in the hierarchy and the nature of inference.