Response and Prediction of Runoff to Land Use Change in Kuye River Basin Based on SWAT and PLUS Models

[Objective] The study is aimed at revealing the response of runoff to land use change in the Kuye River Basin and predicting future runoff change. [Methods] Taking the Kuye River Basin as the study area, based on the SWAT and PLUS models, the changes of runoff under different land use scenarios were quantitatively analyzed by using the land use data of 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020 and the data of 2025 and 2030 that were predicted from the natural development scenario. [Results] (1) The R2 and NS of the SWAT model during the periodic and validation periods were greater than 0.7. The overall accuracy of PLUS model was 0.877 4, and the Kappa coefficient was 0.802 1. The two models had good applicability in the Kuye River Basin. (2) From 2000 to 2020, forest land and construction land increased by 102.92 and 600.90 km2, respectively, while cultivated land, grassland, water area, and unused land decreased by 277.15, 366.25, 40.44 and 19.98 km2, respectively. (3) The average annual runoff depth in the Kuye River Ba