Exploring Natural–Social Impacts on the Complex Interactions of Ecosystem Services in Ecosystem Service Bundles

Understanding intricate interactions between natural–social factors and ecosystem service synergies and trade-offs (ESS/EST) can be valuable for promoting the sustainable development of multiple ecosystem services (ESs). Taking Beijing as the study area, this study was conducted from the perspective of ecosystem service bundles (ESBs). First, based on the identification of key ecological risks, the supply of 5 ESs was quantified. Then, 3 ESBs were identified through the cluster analysis of the ESs. We explored the synergies and trade-offs between ES pairs in different ESBs and quantified their strengths. By further exploring the influence of natural–social factors on ESS/EST, we developed targeted management policies in different ESBs to improve management efficiency. At the township scale, Beijing is divided into 3 ESBs. Marked differences in the ESS/EST were found among each bundle, indicating the necessity of zonal management. The results showed that landscape composition was the dominant factor affecting ESS in ESB3 and EST in ESB2, human activities had the greatest influence on ESS in ESB2, while biophysical indicators had the highest degree of contribution to ESS and EST in ESB1 and EST in ESB3. These results support the formulation of sustainable management strategies. The results of the study emphasize the importance of considering ESS/EST and their natural–social factors in different ESBs when formulating effective policies, which can provide useful guidance for sustainable urban planning and development and can be further applied to metropolitan areas around the world.