A comparative study for accessing primary healthcare between planning assessment and actual utilization for older adults: a case from Dalian City, China

As China has rapidly evolved into an aging society, the Chinese government has developed a community-oriented primary healthcare system to vigorously expedite the transfer of primary health care (PHC) from higher-level hospitals to community health centers (CHCs). However, current planning standards for CHCs have not considered the heterogeneity of older adults in supply-demand services, such that the areas with severe aging may comprise of underestimated levels of accessibility. This study focuses on the gap in PHC access between planning assessment and actual utilization for older adults. We conducted an empirical study in the city area of Dalian based on the check-in and survey data from CHCs during the COVID-19 pandemic. A comparison model was built to calculate matching probability using a modified Gaussian Two-Step Floating Catchment Area (G2SFCA) method. As indicated by the results, the communities in the primary healthcare shortage area (PHCSA) increased 6.8% by considering the heterogeneity of older adults; these communities with underserved PHC were ignored by the current planning assessment. Based on the comparison of actual and theoretical accessibility for older adults, we found that the average matching probability was about 76.6%, which means approximately a quarter of older adults have been misestimated the accessibility of PHC. Further analysis for the older adults with mismatched accessibility showed two causes of the gap, one is the lack of connection between the spatial distribution of facilities and the allocation of service supply, and the other is the subjective cross-catchment visit to CHCs for older adults.