Dynamic Optimal Travel Strategies in Intelligent Stochastic Transit Networks

This paper addresses the search for a run-based dynamic optimal travel strategy, to be supplied through mobile devices (apps) to travelers on a stochastic multiservice transit network, which includes a system forecasting of bus travel times and bus arrival times at stops. The run-based optimal strategy is obtained as a heuristic solution to a Markovian decision problem. The hallmarks of this paper are the proposals to use only traveler state spaces and estimates of dispersion of forecast bus arrival times at stops in order to determine transition probabilities. The first part of the paper analyses some existing line-based and run-based optimal strategy search methods. In the second part, some aspects of dynamic transition probability computation in intelligent transit systems are presented, and a new method for dynamic run-based optimal strategy search is proposed and applied.