Advances in Antithetic Time Series Analysis : Separating Fact from Artifact

The problem of biased time series mathematical model parameter estimates is well known to be insurmountable. When used to predict future values by extrapolation, even a de minimis bias will eventually grow into a large bias, with misleading results. This paper elucidates how combining antithetic tim...

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Veröffentlicht in:Operations research and decisions 2016-01, Vol.26 (no. 3), p.57-68
1. Verfasser: Dennis Ridley
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Online-Zugang:Volltext
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Zusammenfassung:The problem of biased time series mathematical model parameter estimates is well known to be insurmountable. When used to predict future values by extrapolation, even a de minimis bias will eventually grow into a large bias, with misleading results. This paper elucidates how combining antithetic time series' solves this baffling problem of bias in the fitted and forecast values by dynamic bias cancellation. Instead of growing to infinity, the average error can converge to a constant. (original abstract)
ISSN:2081-8858
2391-6060
DOI:10.5277/ord160304