Generation mechanism and prediction of an observed extreme rogue wave

Rogue waves are individual ocean surface waves with crest height η or trough-to-crest height H that are large compared to the significant wave height H s of the underlying sea state: H / H s > 2.2 or η / H s > 1.25 . The physics of rogue wave generation and the potential of predicting the rogue wave risk are open questions. Only a few rogue waves in high sea states have been observed directly, but they can pose a danger to marine operations, onshore and offshore structures, and beachgoers. Here we report on a 17.6m high rogue wave in coastal waters with η / H s = 1.98 and H / H s = 2.9 which are likely the largest normalized heights ever recorded. Simulations of random superposition of Stokes waves in intermediate water depth show good agreement with the observation. Non-linear wave modulational instability, a well known cause for rogue waves in laboratory settings, did not contribute significantly to the rogue wave generation. A parameter obtained from a routine spectral wave forecast provides a practical risk prediction for rogue waves. These results confirm that probabilistic prediction of oceanic rogue waves based on random superposition of steep waves are possible and should replace predictions based on modulational instability.