SCRIPTED ROUND TABLE AS A NEW METHODIC OF FOREIGN POLICY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS FORECAST: APPROBATION RESULTS

The article is devoted to new applied methodic for foreign policy and international relations forecast “scripted round table” elaborated in Centre for Asia-Pacific Studies IHAE FEB RAS. All of existing methodic and their development and application contexts analysis permitted us to draw a conclusion, that interpretation of modern world transformation needs a new one based on a broad trans-disciplinary convergence. According to J. Topolski – W. Wrzosek approach it had been provided with four steps: dialog of methods, effective ones’ isolation, finding new methodological base, elaboration and approbation of a new methodic. As U.S. decision-making process is well studied it had been chosen as an subject of the research. Existing methods of analysis demonstrated a necessity for a new theoretical methodological base to transform them into flexible set of researching tools. Principals of mathematical function and modern physical picture of the world in correspondence with political and social world realities had been chosen as the one. The result permitted to elaborate scripted round table methodic. It means preparation of several lists of issues to be analyzed by experts. All of them had been spread among participants of scripted round table. The list of issues to be discussed had been prepared and spread beforehand as well. In accordance with elaborated procedure all the speakers mutually exchanged their papers not later than two days before the gathering. All its participants had been divided to speakers and “experts without paper”, who took part in discussion only. It permitted to make the one strict, to form condition for non-standard suggestions to be expressed and to draw an integrated picture combined general trends an unique phenomena’s ones. Results of scripted round tables had been represented in final analytical documents.