A genome-based survey of invasive pneumococci in Norway over four decades reveals lineage-specific responses to vaccination

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a major cause of mortality globally. The introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) has reduced the incidence of the targeted serotypes significantly, but expansion of non-targeted serotypes, serotype replacement, and incomplete vaccine-targeting contribute to pneumococcal disease in the vaccine era. Here, we characterize the changing population genetic landscape of S. pneumoniae in Norway over a 41-year period (1982-2022). Since 2018, all cases of invasive pneumococcal disease have undergone whole-genome sequencing (WGS) at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. In order to characterize the changing population over time, historical isolates were re-cultured and sequenced, resulting in a historical WGS dataset. Isolates were assigned to global pneumococcal sequence clusters (GPSCs) using PathogenWatch and assigned to serotypes using in silico (SeroBA) and in vitro methods (Quellung reaction). Temporal phylogenetic analyses were performed on GPSCs of particular interest. The availability of WGS data allowed us to study capsular variation at the level of individual lineages. We detect highly divergent fates for different GPSCs following the introduction of PCVs. For two out of eight major GPSCs, we identified multiple instances of serotype switching from vaccine types to non-vaccine types. Dating analyses suggest that most instances of serotype switching predated the introduction of PCVs, but expansion occurred after their introduction. Furthermore, selection for penicillin non-susceptibility was not a driving force for the changing serotype distribution within the GPSCs over time. PCVs have been major shapers of the Norwegian disease-causing pneumococcal population, both at the level of serotype distributions and the underlying lineage dynamics. Overall, the introduction of PCVs has reduced the incidence of invasive disease. However, some GPSCs initially dominated by vaccine types escaped the effect of vaccination through expansion of non-vaccine serotypes. Close monitoring of circulating lineages and serotypes will be key for ensuring optimal vaccination coverage going forward.