Coupling Ecological Security Pattern Establishment and Construction Land Expansion Simulation for Urban Growth Boundary Delineation: Framework and Application

Reasonable delineation of the urban growth boundary (UGB) plays a vital role in guiding orderly urban space growth and ensuring urban environmental health. Existing methodologies for UGB delineation have failed to address the significance of ecological security. Therefore, this study presents a framework that couples ecological security pattern (ESP) establishment and construction land expansion (CLE) simulation to delineate the UGB. The proposed framework is applied to the Nanchang Metropolitan Area (NCMA) in southeastern China. First, we established the regional ESP of the NCMA in 2018 based on an improved minimum cumulative resistance model. The areas of low-, medium-, and high-level ESP were 1050.75, 736.42, and 720.59 km2, respectively. Second, we implemented a multi-scenario simulation of CLE in the NCMA in 2025 based on a cellular automata–Markov model. A natural development scenario was superior to urban growth and ecological protection scenarios for social, economic, and ecological development at the regional scale. Accordingly, we delineated the UGB of the NCMA in 2025 with a scale of 687.87 km2, based on dynamic adjustment using the results of ESP establishment and CLE simulation in the natural development scenario. The rationality and scientificity of the proposed framework were verified by comparing the scale and layout of the delineated UGB with the regional planning of Nanchang City. The framework incorporating dynamic adjustment with ESP establishment and multi-scenario CLE simulation provides a useful tool for the delineation of the UGB in similar urbanized cities. Its application is conducive to achieving a win–win outcome of regional ecological security and urban development.