Forecasting the Expansion of Bactrocera tsuneonis (Miyake) (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China Using the MaxEnt Model

The invasive pest, (Miyake), has become a significant threat to China's citrus industry. Predicting the area of potentially suitable habitats for is essential for optimizing pest control strategies that mitigate its impact on the citrus industry. Here, existing distribution data for , as well as current climate data and projections for four future periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were obtained. The distribution of under current and different climate change scenarios in China was predicted using the optimized MaxEnt model, ArcGIS, and the ENMeval data package. Model accuracy was assessed using ROC curves, and the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of the pest were identified based on the percent contribution. When the regularization multiplier (RM) was set to 1.5 and the feature combination (FC) was set to LQH, a model with lower complexity was obtained. Under these parameter settings, the mean training AUC was 0.9916, and the mean testing AUC was 0.9854, indicating high predictive performance. The most influential environmental variables limiting the distribution of were the Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (Bio18) and Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation ×100) (Bio4). Under current climatic conditions, potentially suitable habitat for in China covered an area of 215.9 × 10 km , accounting for 22.49% of the country's land area. Potentially suitable habitat was primarily concentrated in Central China, South China, and East China. However, under future climatic projections, the area of suitable habitat for exhibited varying degrees of expansion. Furthermore, the centroid of the total suitable habitat for this pest gradually shifted westward and northward. These findings suggest that will spread to northern and western regions of China under future climate changes. The results of our study indicate that climate change will have a major effect on the invasion of and have implications for the development of strategies to control the spread of in China.