Fixing a Design Error: How the Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance Becomes Democratically Legitimate and Sustainable

Abstract The optimisation of the cyclical adjustment procedure under the German debt brake should focus on how to contribute to a democratically legitimate and sustainable fiscal policy. In this article, we discuss four criteria that should be satisfied: The method must (i) be sufficiently determined, (ii) take the current state of research into account, (iii) incentivise a policy that enhances supply-side capacities, and (iv) be transparent. We show that today’s form of the cyclically adjusted budget balance does not satisfy these criteria, and we propose a reform. Finally, we discuss several recent trends in German fiscal policy, questioning whether such a reform can save the debt brake’s plausibility.