Early recurrence as a pivotal event in nasopharyngeal carcinoma: identifying predictors and key molecular signals for survivors

The duration of response to treatment is a significant prognostic indicator, with early recurrence (ER) often predicting poorer survival outcomes in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) survivors. This study seeks to elucidate the factors contributing to the onset of ER following radiotherapy in NPC survivors. This investigation encompassed 2,789 newly diagnosed NPC patients who underwent radical intensity-modulated radiotherapy. Ordinal logistic regression analysis was employed to evaluate the independent predictors of earlier recurrence. A machine learning-based prediction model of NPC recurrence patterns was developed. Tumorous RNA-sequencing (in-house cohort: N = 192) and biological tipping point analysis were utilized to infer potential molecular mechanisms associated with ER. Our results demonstrated that ER within 24 months post-initial treatment was the optimal time frame for identifying early malignant progression in NPC survivors. The ER cohort (150 of 2,789, 5.38%) exhibited a notably short median overall survival of 48.6 months. Multivariate analyses revealed that male gender, T4 stage, local or regional residual disease, detectable pre- and post-radiotherapy EBV DNA, and the absence of induction chemotherapy were significant predictors of earlier recurrence. The machine learning-based predictive model further underscored the importance of tumor-related factors in NPC recurrence. Moreover, ER emerged as a pivotal stage in NPC progression, with 15 critical transition signals identified potentially associated with the negative modulation of the immune response. Our comprehensive analysis of NPC recurrence patterns has unveiled insights into the key factors driving ER and provided novel insights into potential early warning biomarkers and the mechanisms underlying NPC progression.