Projected bioclimatic distributions in Nearctic Bovidae signal the potential for reduced overlap with protected areas

Assumptions about factors such as climate in shaping species' realized and potential distributions underlie much of conservation planning and wildlife management. Climate and climatic change lead to shifts in species distributions through both direct and indirect ecological pressures. Distributional shifts may be particularly important if range overlap is altered between interacting species, or between species and protected areas. The cattle family (Bovidae) represents a culturally, economically, and ecologically important taxon that occupies many of the world's rangelands. In contemporary North America, five wild bovid species inhabit deserts, prairies, mountains, and tundra from Mexico to Greenland. Here, we aim to understand how future climate change will modify environmental characteristics associated with North American bovid species relative to the distribution of extant protected areas. We fit species distribution models for each species to climate, topography, and land cover data using observations from a citizen science dataset. We then projected modeled distributions to the end of the 21st century for each bovid species under two scenarios of anticipated climate change. Modeling results suggest that suitable habitat will shift inconsistently across species and that such shifts will lead to species‐specific variation in overlap between potential habitat and existing protected areas. Furthermore, projected overlap with protected areas was sensitive to the warming scenario under consideration, with diminished realized protected area under greater warming. Conservation priorities and designation of new protected areas should account for ecological consequences of climate change. Members of the cattle family (Bovidae) in North America face considerable change under projected climate change. In this article, we describe ecological niche models fit to occurrence data of five wild bovid species and predict current and future distribution of bioclimatic factors characterizing species occurrence under two climate change scenarios. We measure the degree of overlap between modeled distributions and currently protected areas, finding that ecological niche space is expected to shift most dramatically among more northerly species, leading to larger reductions in realized protected space.