Educational achievement and youth homicide mortality: a City-wide, neighborhood-based analysis

Background and objective Educational achievement, particularly among youth, may mitigate risk of exposure to violence and negative related health outcomes such as crime and gang activity. Few studies to date have examined relationships between education and youth homicide. The authors hypothesized association between educational achievement in grades 3 and 8 and youth homicide mortality. Methods Neighborhood-based, city-wide analysis was conducted of cross-sectional data regarding N = 55 neighborhoods in Baltimore, MD, extracted from Baltimore 2017 Neighborhood Health Profiles. Results Higher educational achievement (operationalized by reading proficiency) in third, but not eighth, grade was associated with reduced neighborhood youth homicide mortality rates in hierarchical linear regression, controlling for demographic and socioeconomic factors (ss = - 0.5082, p = 0.03), such that each 1.97% increase in proportion of students reading at an acceptable level was associated with one fewer neighborhood youth homicide per 100,000. Neighborhoods within the highest tertile of youth homicide mortality differed from those in the lowest tertile with fewer males (45% vs. 48%, p = 0.002), greater unemployment (17% vs. 8%, p < 0.001), familial poverty (35% vs. 16%, p < 0.001), and residents identifying as black or African-American (88% vs. 25%, p < 0.001). Causal mediation analysis demonstrated mediation effects of familial poverty and eighth grade educational achievement through third grade educational achievement (ACME = 0.151, p = 0.04; ACME = - 0.300, p = 0.03, respectively) with no significant direct effects. Conclusions Higher educational achievement (operationalized by reading proficiency) predicts reduced homicide mortality among Baltimore youth and appears to mediate effects of familial poverty on homicide mortality as well. This converges with literature highlighting the importance of education as a determinant of social capital and violence. Future policy-based interventions should target inequalities in educational achievement to mitigate homicide risk among youth in communities facing disparities in violent crime. Keywords: Youth homicide, Education, Gun violence, Homicide, Violence, Injury prevention, Community health, Neighborhood safety, Health inequality, School policy