Impacts of chemical fertilizer reduction on grain yield: A case study of China

Reducing fertilizer usage is a crucial measure for achieving high-quality development in Chinese agriculture. Utilizing panel data from 31 Chinese provinces spanning from 2004 to 2019, this study empirically analyzes the dynamic relationship between fertilizer application and grain production, exploring the underlying mechanisms. The study findings reveal that the application of fertilizers maintains a positive impact on grain production. The two variables will demonstrate a dynamic alternation between "strong decoupling" and "retreat decoupling," suggesting that grain production may either increase or gradually decline, while fertilizer application exhibits a decreasing trend. Mechanism analysis reveals a distinct substitution relationship between fertilizer use efficiency and application quantity. Increasing fertilizer use efficiency while reducing application quantity still facilitates the stable and increased production of grains. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the efficiency of fertilizer use has a more pronounced impact on grain yield in the eastern and western regions. Increasing fertilizer quantity is detrimental to wheat yield but has a promoting effect on corn yield. However, in the main grain-producing areas, increasing fertilizer quantity can enhance wheat yield but is unfavorable for the overall grain yield. Additionally, nitrogen fertilizer input has exceeded the optimal level compared to potassium fertilizer. Continuously increasing nitrogen fertilizer input will hinder the increase in grain yield. Therefore, there is a need to shift from the notion of "more fertilizer is better" and focus on improving fertilizer use efficiency to transition from the emphasis on "quantity" to "quality" of fertilizer application.