Energy Conservation in the Cooling and Contracting Upper Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere

Time series of radiative cooling of the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (UMLT) by carbon dioxide (CO2) are examined for evidence of trends over 20 years. Radiative cooling rates in K day−1 provided by the SABER instrument are converted to time series of infrared power radiated from three distinct layers between 0.1 hPa and 0.0001 hPa (65–105 km). Linear regression against time and a predictor for solar variability provides estimates of the trend in exiting longwave radiation (ELR) from these layers. Trends in ELR are not significantly different from zero at 95% or 99% confidence in each layer. These results demonstrate energy conservation in the UMLT on decadal time scales and show that the UMLT continues to radiate the same amount of energy it receives despite cooling and contracting over two decades. These results are enabled by the long‐term stability of the SABER instrument calibration. Plain Language Summary The Earth's upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (UMLT) is the region between approximately 65 and 105 km in altitude. Infrared radiation emitted by CO2 is a fundamental component of the energy budget of the UMLT. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is increasing in this region. The amount of infrared energy emitted by CO2, over time, must balance the amount of energy from sunlight that is absorbed in the UMLT. Observations from orbiting satellites over the past two decades have shown that the temperature in the UMLT is decreasing due to the increasing CO2. A decreasing temperature implies a decrease in infrared energy emitted by an object. Energy conservation, however, requires that the amount of infrared energy radiated from the UMLT balance the amount of energy received, regardless of the temperature. In this paper we show that there is no significant long‐term change with time (i.e., zero trend) in the infrared energy emitted from the UMLT even though the UMLT temperature has been decreasing for the last 20 years (and longer) due to increasing CO2. This result confirms that energy is conserved in a cooling and contracting UMLT. Key Points Time series of infrared power (W) radiated by CO2 from the upper mesosphere & lower thermosphere (UMLT) are developed Trends in radiated power are not different from zero at 95% or 99% confidence in the three layers examined between 0.1 and 0.0001 hPa Increasing CO2 reduces the UMLT temperature while radiating the same amount of energy over time, thus conserving energy