A Stochastic Model Predictive Control Method for Tie-Line Power Smoothing under Uncertainty

With the high proportion of distributed energy resource (DER) access in the distributed network, the tie-line power should be controlled and smoothed to minimize power flow fluctuations due to the uncertainty of DER. In this paper, a stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) method is proposed for tie-line power smoothing using a novel data-driven linear power flow (LPF) model that enhances efficiency by updating parameters online instead of retraining. The scenario method is then employed to simplify the objective function and chance constraints. The stability of the proposed model is demonstrated theoretically, and the performance analysis indicates positive results. In the one-day case study, the mean relative error is only 1.1%, with upper and lower quartiles of 1.4% and 0.2%, respectively, which demonstrates the superiority of the proposed method.