Detection of local-scale population declines through optimized tidal marsh bird monitoring design

Evaluating the efficacy of monitoring designs is crucial for the successful monitoring and conservation of populations. For tidal marsh bird species of conservation concern, detecting population declines at local spatial scales within actionable time frames is a top priority. We examined and compared the effectiveness of alternative monitoring strategies for detecting local-scale population declines using count data from 1176 spatially-independent salt marsh sampling points throughout the northeastern United States (Maine to Virginia). We used abundance estimates that accounted for imperfect detection as initial conditions to simulate annual population declines of 5%, 10%, 30%, and 50% over a 5-year sampling period. Under an optimal monitoring design with biennial sampling, we were able to successfully detect annual population declines of ≥30% for each species and for all species combined. However, this required a minimum of 15–20 points per site being sampled. Power to detect declines, although low for detecting smaller annual declines (i.e.,