Integrated hydrological modeling and water resource assessment in the Mayurakshi River Basin: A comprehensive study from historical data to future predictions

•Hydrological response of Mayurakshi River Basin is established by SWAT model.•Evapotranspiration and surface runoff are important for potential agricultural use.•Spatial analysis of blue and green water flow variables highlights distinct patterns. This study employs the SWAT hydrologic model to integrate climatological and hydrological processes for an in-depth analysis of the Mayurakshi River Basin. Utilizing the Markov chain model, the study evaluates water availability, flow patterns, and the basin's response to various climatic and land-use scenarios. Over 30 years of daily observed river discharge data were rigorously calibrated, validated, and analyzed for uncertainty, with critical data from the Massanjore Dam and Tilpara Barrage gauge stations characterizing the river's hydrological behavior. The result suggests the watershed received an average annual precipitation of 1432.4 mm, with evapotranspiration accounting for 40% of total water loss (578.4 mm). Surface runoff constituted over 90% of the total discharge, highlighting its importance for agricultural practices, particularly during the dry season. However future projections (2021–2031) indicate a significant decrease in mean annual precipitation (1404.7 mm) and a drop in evapotranspiration (542.1 mm or 38% of mean precipitation), attributed to reduced vegetation cover and increased settlement, leading to enhanced surface runoff. By quantifying internal renewable blue water, evapotranspiration, and soil water, this research provides crucial data for long-term water resource planning and assessment. The findings are valuable for national, regional, and transboundary water management agencies, offering insights into sustainable water resource management under changing climatic and different land-use conditions. [Display omitted]