Clinical utility of diffusion MRI‐derived measures of cortical microstructure in a real‐world memory clinic setting

Objective To investigate cortical microstructural measures from diffusion MRI as “neurodegeneration” markers that could improve prognostic accuracy in mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Methods The prognostic power of Amyloid/Tau/Neurodegeneration (ATN) biomarkers to predict progression from MCI to AD or non‐AD dementia was investigated. Ninety patients underwent clinical evaluation (follow‐up interval 32 ± 18 months), lumbar puncture, and MRI. Participants were grouped by clinical stage and cerebrospinal fluid Amyloid and Tau status. T1‐structural and diffusion MRI scans were analyzed to calculate diffusion metrics related to cortical columnar structure (AngleR, ParlPD, PerpPD+), cortical mean diffusivity, and fractional anisotropy. Statistical tests were corrected for multiple comparisons. Prognostic power was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and related indices. Results A progressive increase of whole‐brain cortical diffusion values was observed along the AD continuum, with all A+ groups showing significantly higher AngleR than A−T−. Investigating clinical progression to dementia, the AT biomarkers together showed good positive predictive value (with 90.91% of MCI A+T+ converting to dementia) but poor negative predictive value (with 40% of MCI A−T− progressing to a mix of AD and non‐AD dementias). Adding whole‐brain AngleR as an N marker, produced good differentiation between stable and converting MCI A−T− patients (0.8 area under ROC curve) and substantially improved negative predictive value (+21.25%). Interpretation Results support the clinical utility of cortical microstructure to aid prognosis, especially in A−T− patients. Further work will investigate other complexities of the real‐world clinical setting, including A−T+ groups. Diffusion MRI measures of neurodegeneration may complement fluid AT markers to support clinical decision‐making.