Effects of neighbourhood characteristics on the distribution of vacant houses in Toda city, a satellite city of Tokyo metropolis of japan

As Japan faces a growing crisis of vacant housing, this study investigates the underexplored relationship between vacant house distribution and neighbourhood characteristics in Toda City, a satellite city of the Tokyo metropolis located in Saitama Prefecture. We selected 10 community features, including living convenience, housing supply, and policy support, to explore their influence on vacancy rates. Using a comprehensive dataset primarily derived from the PLATEAU data, we employed a two-step method combining global and local Moran’s I analyses to assess the spatial distribution normality of vacant houses. We then compared traditional statistical data analysis with spatial data analysis through multiscale geographically weighted regression to evaluate their effectiveness and identify the factors most closely associated with vacancy rates. Our findings reveal that spatial data analysis provides superior insights compared to traditional statistical methods. Both approaches consistently indicate a significant positive correlation between the supermarket area ratio and vacancy rates, and a significant negative correlation between road adjacency and vacancy rates. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using spatial data to analyse neighbourhood characteristics in the context of declining vacancy rates in satellite cities. The insights gained offer theoretical support for selecting data and methodologies in future research and policymaking that are aimed at mitigating the growth of vacant houses.