Low-Carbon Transformation of Electric System against Power Shortage in China: Policy Optimization

The low-carbon transition of the power system is essential for China to achieve peak carbon and carbon neutrality. However, China could suffer power shortages due to radical policies in some extreme cases. The gap between power demand and supply from March 2021 to November 2021 ranged between 5.2 billion kW·h and 24.6 billion kW·h. The main reason for the power shortage was over-reliance on renewable energy and insufficient coal power supply for the power system. The low-carbon transformation path of the electric system needs to be explored with more flexibility for power security. This study applied a modified LEAP model and carried out a forecast analysis of thermal power generation and installed capacity in 2025 and 2030 under normal and extreme weather scenarios. The results suggested that: the installed capacity of thermal power will need to account for about 44.6–46.1% of power generation in 2025 and 37.4–39.3% in 2030, with the assumption of power shortages caused by the instability and uncertainty of renewable power. In the future, China needs to pursue the development of diversified energy sources and enhance the power supply security capability while strengthening the development and utilization of renewable energy.