Trends in capacity changes in oil refining in the European energy sector

Oil is an important product in the world energy sector, while its refinement has a significant impact on the development of the world economy. Europe’s is among the leading oil refinement sectors worldwide. Therefore, developing European refineries’ capacity is an important political and economic objective. The purpose of this study is to identify trends in refining capacities in European regions. To achieve this goal, it was necessary to develop a methodology to assess oil refinement capacities, study their dynamics in European regions, determine the of European states’ contributions to the capacities, identify trends in the concentration of states’ capacities, assess the impact of COVID-19, and forecast the development of the capacities based on the trends. The period for the study is 2005–2020. The results show that during the period, Germany, Italy, France, and Spain led all European countries in refining capacity. The Gini and Herfindahl–Hirschman indices show a decreasing concentration trend and a more even distribution of capacity across Europe. During the period, the shares of the total European refining capacity were approximately 50%, 30%, and 20% for the North, South, and West regions, respectively. The impact of COVID-19 on the European oil refining capacity in terms of volume was assessed by comparing the total capacities in 2019 and 2020. If the rate of change in refining capacity remains at the level highlighted in the period, a 20% decrease (relative to the 2005 capacity volumes) may occur in the West and South regions by 2027, while the same 20% decrease may occur in the North region by approximately 2043.