Observed extreme precipitation trends and scaling in Central Europe
In this publication we aim to relate observed changes in Central European extreme precipitation to the respective large-scale thermodynamic state of the atmosphere. Maxima of long-term (1901–2013) daily precipitation records from a densely sampled Central European station network, spanning Austria,...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Weather and climate extremes 2020-09, Vol.29, p.100266, Article 100266 |
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Sprache: | eng |
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Zusammenfassung: | In this publication we aim to relate observed changes in Central European extreme precipitation to the respective large-scale thermodynamic state of the atmosphere. Maxima of long-term (1901–2013) daily precipitation records from a densely sampled Central European station network, spanning Austria, Switzerland, Germany and the Netherlands, are scaled with Northern Hemispheric and regional temperature anomalies. Scaling coefficients are estimated at station level and aggregated to infer a robust regional extreme precipitation – temperature relationship. Across Central Europe, an overall intensification and a positive scaling signal with Northern Hemispheric temperature is detected in annual, summer, and winter single-day to monthly maximum precipitation. Generally, the estimates are consistent also when only considering data after 1950, and the scaling of annual maxima is also significant for all individual countries but Austria. However, scaling magnitudes are found to vary considerably between seasons and subregions. Also, scaling with regional temperature is non-significant, except for winter extreme precipitation.
•Extreme precipitation has intensified at most stations in Central Europe since 1901.•Precipitation maxima are found to scale positively with NH temperature anomalies.•A climate change signal is also detected for seasonal and multi-day extremes.•Results are robust even when only considering events after 1950. |
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ISSN: | 2212-0947 2212-0947 |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100266 |