A Gravity Model Analysis of Forest Products Trade Between Turkey and European Union Countries

The study aimed to understand the determining factors of the trade between Turkey and the European Union (EU) countries in the forest products sector and assess Turkey’s forest product export potential to the EU. The study period was from 2005 to 2020 and focused on HS44, HS47, and HS48 forest produ...

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Veröffentlicht in:Drvna industrija 2023, Vol.74 (2), p.233-241
Hauptverfasser: Okan, Taner, Magezi, Henry Eric
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:The study aimed to understand the determining factors of the trade between Turkey and the European Union (EU) countries in the forest products sector and assess Turkey’s forest product export potential to the EU. The study period was from 2005 to 2020 and focused on HS44, HS47, and HS48 forest product groups. A gravity model was estimated using panel data with the Ordinary Least Squares, Random Effects, and Hausman-Taylor estimation methods. Results indicate that the forest products exports from Turkey to the EU are significantly influenced by the Gross Domestic Product, the population of Turkey and the EU partner, and negatively by the relative forest endowment. The elasticities estimated were then used to predict the export potential of Turkey in the trade of forest products. The findings revealed that the predicted forest export value exceeded Turkey’s actual forest products export to Denmark, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Poland, Slovenia and Spain from 2005 to 2020. Cilj istraživanja bio je proučiti najvažnije čimbenike trgovinskih odnosa Turske i zemalja Europske unije (EU) u sektoru šumarstva i drvne industrije te procijeniti izvozni potencijal drvnih proizvoda iz Turske u EU. Istraživanje je trajalo od 2005. do 2020., a naglasak je bio na skupinama drvnih proizvoda HS44, HS47 i HS48. Gravitacijski model definiran je uz pomoć panel-podataka primjenom ovih metoda: metode najmanjih kvadrata, metode slučajnih efekata i Hausman-Taylorove metode. Rezultati su pokazali da je izvoz drvnih proizvoda iz Turske u EU pod znatnim utjecajem domaće bruto proizvodnje, broja stanovništva Turske i partnera iz EU-a te pod negativnim utjecajem relativne raznovrsnosti drvnih proizvoda. Ujedno su procijenjene elastičnosti primijenjene za predviđanje izvoznog potencijala drvnih proizvoda iz Turske. Utvrđeno je da predviđena vrijednost izvoza od 2005. do 2020. godine premašuje stvarni izvoz drvnih proizvoda iz Turske u Dansku, Francusku, Italiju, Luksemburg, Poljsku, Sloveniju i Španjolsku.
ISSN:0012-6772
1847-1153
DOI:10.5552/drvind.2023.0057