Projected Global Temperature Changes After Net Zero Are Small But Significant

As more countries make net zero greenhouse gas emissions pledges, it is crucial to understand the effects on global climate after achieving net zero emissions. The climate has been found to continue to evolve even after the abrupt cessation of CO2 emissions, with some models simulating a small warming and others simulating a small cooling. In this study, we analyze if the temperature and precipitation changes post abrupt cessation of CO2 emissions are significantly different compared to natural climate variations. We find that the temperature changes are outside of natural variability for most models, whilst the precipitation changes are mostly non‐significant. We also demonstrate that post‐net zero temperature changes have implications for the remaining carbon budget. The possibility of further global warming post‐net zero adds to the evidence supporting more rapid emissions reductions in the near‐term. Plain Language Summary As more countries commit to achieving net‐zero greenhouse gas emissions, it is essential to understand the impact this will have on the global climate beyond this point. It has been found that even after CO2 emissions are abruptly halted, the climate continues to change, with various models predicting either a slight warming or cooling effect. In our study, we investigate whether the temperature and precipitation changes that occur after the sudden cessation of CO2 emissions are noteworthy when compared to natural climate variations. Our analysis reveals that the temperature changes, in the majority of models, surpass what can be attributed to natural variability. However, the precipitation changes are generally not significant. Additionally, we observe that the temperature changes post‐net zero have implications for the remaining carbon budget. Key Points Global mean surface temperature changes after abrupt CO2 emissions cessation are significant compared to natural variability in most models Global mean precipitation changes after 50 yrs are only significant compared to natural variability in models that warm The uncertain temperature changes post‐net zero have implications for the remaining carbon budget