The effects of super spreading events and movement control measures on the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia

This paper aims to develop an automated web application to generate validated daily effective reproduction numbers (Rt) which can be used to examine the effects of super-spreading events due to mass gatherings and the effectiveness of the various Movement Control Order (MCO) stringency levels on the outbreak progression of COVID-19 in Malaysia. The effective reproduction number, Rt, was estimated by adopting and modifying an Rt estimation algorithm using a validated distribution mean of 3.96 and standard deviation of 4.75 with a seven-day sliding window. The Rt values generated were validated using thea moving window SEIR model with a negative binomial likelihood fitted using methods from the Bayesian inferential framework. A Pearson’s correlation between the Rt values estimated by the algorithm and the SEIR model was r = 0.70, p