The Hypothetical Psychological Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Pediatrics and Pediatric Emergency Admissions: Evidence from Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Method

The COVID-19 pandemic and related deaths affected the number of admissions of patients to hospitals. However, no study has been found that examines the short and long-term psychological effects of children or their possible psychiatric admissions to hospitals during the pandemic period. In this context, the study aims to analyze the behaviors of individuals under the age of 18 in their health service utilization during the COVID-19 pandemic period. For the study, whether the pandemic and psychiatry department (PSY) admissions affect the pediatrics department (PD) and pediatric emergency department (PED) admissions of children was investigated. The sample was taken from hospitals in Sivas between 2019 and 2021. Autoregressive dis- tributed lag (ARDL) model is applied. The ARDL is an econometric method that can estimate the existence of the long-term correlations (cointegration) of variables and the short and long-term effects of explanatory variables on the dependent variable. In the PED application model, the number of deaths, representing the impact of the pandemic, decreased the number of PED applications, while the number of vaccinations increased. On the other hand, applications to the PSY decreased in the short term, but increased in the long term. In the model of pediatric department admissions, in the long term, the number of new COVID-19 cases has decreased the number of PD admissions, while the number of vaccines has increased. While applications made to PSY in the short term have decreased the applications of PD, they have increased in the long term. As a result, the pandemic decreased both children's department admissions. In addition, admissions to PSY, which had greatly decreased in the short term, increased rapidly in the long term. Providing psychological support to both children and adolescents and their guardians during and after the pandemic should be included in planning.