Metabolic syndrome components and diabetes incidence according to the presence or absence of impaired fasting glucose: The Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study

We prospectively examined the association of diabetes risk with the number of metabolic abnormalities, as well as their combinations, according to the presence or absence of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) in a large-scale Japanese working population. Participants included 55,271 workers at 11 companies who received periodic health check-ups between 2008 and 2013. The metabolic syndrome (MetS) components were defined using the 2009 Joint Interim Statement. IFG was defined as fasting plasma glucose 5.6–6.9 mmol/L. Diabetes newly diagnosed after the baseline examination was defined according to the American Diabetes Association criteria. We calculated the hazard ratios (HRs) for diabetes incidence using the Cox proportional hazards model. During the follow-up period (median 4.95 years), 3183 subjects developed diabetes. In individuals with normal fasting glucose levels, the risk of diabetes increased steadily with the increasing number of MetS components; the multivariable-adjusted HRs for incident diabetes for the number of MetS components were 2.0, 4.3, 7.0, and 10.0 for one, two, three, or four MetS components, respectively, compared with the absence of components. A similar association was observed among individuals with IFG; the corresponding HRs were 17.6, 23.8, 33.9, and 40.7. The combinations that included central obesity appeared to be more strongly associated with diabetes risk than other combinations with the same number of MetS components within the same glucose status. Our findings indicate that risk stratification of individuals by the presence or absence of IFG and the number of MetS components can detect individuals with a high risk of diabetes. •We examined diabetes risk by the number and combination of metabolic abnormalities.•Diabetes risk increased with the number of abnormalities for a given glucose status.•The combinations that included central obesity were strongly associated with diabetes.