Integrated decision-making about China's energy poverty alleviation based on system dynamics

An energy poverty policy simulation model is developed to make integrated decision and optimize China's energy poverty alleviation. In the model, system dynamic modeling is used to investigate the time-varying behavior of energy poverty system over time, and scenario analysis is carried to test and determine the most efficient scenario. The results show that energy poverty will move toward a sustainable alleviation from 2021 to 2030. Compared with 2011, the energy poverty index in scenario Ⅰ - Ⅵ will decrease by 47.98%, 62.08%, 43.19%, 53.31%, 62.22% and 88.42% in 2030. Both employment and financial expenditure have a significant positive effect on energy poverty alleviation, while energy structure adjustment plays a double-sided role in alleviating energy poverty. Combination strategy is the most efficient scenario, where China could achieve United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 of providing clean and affordable energy access to all by 2031. •The system dynamics modeling and scenario analysis are effective in evaluating energy poverty policy in China.•China's energy poverty moves toward a sustainable alleviation from 2021 to 2030.•Both employment and financial support play positive roles in alleviating energy poverty.•Energy structure adjustment has a double-sided effect on energy poverty alleviation.•It is possible for China to eradicate energy poverty and achieve UN SDG 7 by 2031 in the combination strategy.