Dynamics of land cover changes and carbon emissions driven by large dams in China

The recent surge in dam construction has sparked debates regarding their contribution to carbon neutrality and food security, focusing on trade-offs between production benefits and ecological drawbacks. However, how dams affect carbon emissions and land cover changes, including their spatial differentiations, remains unclear. We quantified spatiotemporal variations in carbon emissions and storage of 137 large dams in China from 1992 to 2020, resulting from land cover change in potentially affected areas. We observed a lesser increase in carbon emissions and a more pronounced increase in carbon storage driven by forest conservation and regeneration within dam-affected areas compared to unaffected areas. Additionally, we noticed an increased grain yield in nearby areas potentially due to increased water availability. Our findings highlight the importance of considering land cover change when assessing carbon neutrality or grain yield at regional and national scales. This study provides useful insights into optimizing dam locations to mitigate future carbon emissions effectively. [Display omitted] •Studied land cover changes near China’s 137 large dams, impacting carbon emissions•Dam-affected land cover varies significantly across different regions•Less increase in carbon emissions in dam-affected versus unaffected areas•Dams may positively impact carbon neutrality and food security Hydrology; Biogeoscience; Agricultural land; Land use