Budget impact analysis of the adoption of new hypertension guidelines in Colombia

Hypertension represents a high burden of disease in different healthcare systems. Recent guideline published in 2017 by the American Heart Association and the American College of Cardiology has generated a debate between clinicians and policymakers due to the lowering of diagnosis threshold and the subsequent increase of the prevalence and healthcare costs. No empirical research exists addressing the question about the pressure on healthcare costs generated by new standards. This study aims to quantify the impact on the hypertension diagnosis and treatment costs for healthcare system using the new hypertension guideline. We conducted a budget impact analysis from a Colombian healthcare payer's perspective with a 3-year time horizon (2018-2020), in which we estimated the difference in total medical care costs between previous hypertension cut-off points (140/90 mmHg) and new guideline cut-off points (130/80 mmHg). Our results show that the impact of the adoption of the new hypertension guideline would represent a decrease close to 22% in total annual high blood pressure costs in Colombia. This reduction is mainly driven by a lower number of cardiovascular complications. It is worth noting that these results should be taken with caution due to local available data. A high-middle income country such as Colombia should carry out an exhaustive revision of the recommendations of the new hypertension guideline, due to its high probability of saving medical treatment costs for the healthcare system.