Constructing individualized follow-up strategies for locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients based on dynamic recurrence risk changes

The aim of this study was to explore the high-risk factors for recurrence in patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) undergoing definitive chemoradiotherapy or radiotherapy (dCRT or dRT). Conditional survival (CS) was used to evaluate the dynamic survival and recurrence risk of patients after treatment, and individualized monitoring strategies were developed for patients. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine independent recurrence risk factors. Calibration curves and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to evaluate nomogram models. Kaplan–Meier curves were used to compare survival rates in different groups and to calculate CS rate. A total of 677 patients were included. Multivariate logistic analyses demonstrated that chemotherapy cycles, tumor length, body mass index (BMI), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (LMR) were independent recurrence risk factors (p