Revolución y contrarrevolución en economía. De Lord Keynes a Milton Friedman

The history of economic thought can be characterized as a series of ‘revolutions’. While the success of a revolution in economics depends on the scientific characteristics of the new theory itself, its social acceptance resides in the pre-existence of an orthodox vision inconsistent with reality. In this context, the Keynesian revolution in monetary theory constituted a real revolution, because it had the characteristics to be academically and professionally successful. The very success of any revolution, however, ensures that it will –in turn– become orthodoxy and thus be vulnerable to revolutionary attacks; which in turn give rise to counter-revolution. This was precisely the role played by Monetarism which, following the same principles of liberation of the Keynesian revolution against Classical economics, ignited a counter-revolution by identifying two vulnerable sides in the Keynesian revolution: its inability to prescribe an antidote for inflation, and its dependence on the authority and prestige of senior scholars, thus subjugating young scholars to an outmoded leadership. Even though the Monetarist counterrevolution has served a useful scientific purpose, its success is likely to be transitory, because it has chosen an issue –inflation– that is less relevant socially than unemployment –the issue that gave prestige and longevity to the General Theory. From this perspective, if the essence of economics is seen as a sequence of revolutions and counter-revolutions, a post counter revolution will be required for further development. Se presenta un análisis retrospectivo acerca de los escenarios básicos que dieron pie a la contrarrevolución monetarista, a partir de ciertas debilidades que fueron identificadas dentro de la teoría de la revolución keynesiana. El análisis de este artículo es de interés general y de actualidad ya que de acuerdo con la lógica histórica de la economía este análisis puede fundamentar la secuencia de revoluciones y contrarrevoluciones, que se requerirán en el futuro para desarrollar una post-contrarrevolución.