Risk stratification of ER‐positive breast cancer patients: A multi‐institutional validation and outcome study of the Rochester Modified Magee algorithm (RoMMa) and prediction of an Oncotype DX® recurrence score <26

The skyrocketing cost of health‐care demands that we question when to use multigene assay testing in the planning of treatment for breast cancer patients. A previously published algorithmic model gave recommendations for which cases to send out for Oncotype DX® (ODX) testing. This study is a multi‐institutional validation of that algorithmic model in 620 additional estrogen receptor positive breast cancer cases, with outcome data on 310 cases, named in this study as the Rochester Modified Magee algorithm (RoMMa). RoMMa correctly predicted 85% (140/164) and 100% (17/17) of cases to have a low‐ or high‐risk ODX recurrence score, respectively, consistent with the original publication. Applying our own risk stratification criteria, in patients who received appropriate hormonal therapy, only one of the 45 (2.0%) patients classified as low risk by our original algorithm have been associated with a breast cancer recurrence over 5‐10 years of follow‐up. Eight of 116 (7.0%) patients classified as low risk by ODX have been associated with a breast cancer recurrence with up to 11 years of follow‐up. In addition, 524 of 537 (98%) cases from our total population (n = 903) with an average modified Magee score ≤18 had an ODX recurrence score 30 may not need to be sent out for ODX testing. By avoiding these cases sending out for ODX testing, the potential cost savings to the health‐care system in 2018 are estimated to have been over $100,000,000. We have developed an algorithmic approach using immunohistochemistry and clinical data to help predict patients at a lower and higher risk for breast cancer recurrence. We estimate that by avoiding sending out certain cases for Oncotype DX testing, the potential cost savings to the health‐care system in 2018 would have been over $100,000,000.