Medium- and long-term development path of natural gas consumption in China: Based on a multi-model comparison framework

As a kind of relatively clean fossil energy, natural gas will face severe uncertainties in the background of carbon neutrality. Reviewing the medium- and long-term development trend of natural gas consumption is the prerequisite to better understanding the status of natural gas and ensure the sustainable development of natural gas industry. In this paper, a multi-model comparison framework is established on the basis of 8 representative integrated assessment models (CE3METL, DNE21+, IPAC, AIM/CGE, IMAGE, REMIND, WITCH and POLES). Then, the medium- and long-term evolution trend of China's total primary energy consumption and natural gas consumption in different scenarios of climate policy is discussed. In addition, comparative analysis is conducted on key time nodes such as 2030, 2045 and 2060. And the following research results are obtained. Firstly, the prediction results of most models indicate that China's total primary energy consumption in 2060 will be lower than the level in 2019 except for the scenario of national determined contribution (NDC). Secondly, by 2060, the carbon neutrality goal year, the cross-model average level of natural gas consumption under the NDC, 2.0 °C, and 1.5 °C scenarios will be 6943 × 108 m3, 4342 × 108 m3 and 2502 × 108 m3, respectively. Thirdly, under the 1.5 °C scenario, the decrease of total primary energy consumption shall begin in 2020, which means that faster technological progress and more effective combination of “nudge” policies are needed. Fourthly, under the temperature control goal of 2.0 °C, natural gas consumption will account for about 13.6% of China's primary energy consumption in 2060, and this proportion will drop to 9% under the stricter 1.5 °C scenario. In conclusion, the multi-model comparison results can present different development paths of China's total primary energy consumption and natural gas consumption and its proportion during 2020–2060 more comprehensively, so as to provide support for formulating the medium- and long-term policies and strategies of natural gas industry under the challenge of climate change.